On April 4th, Musk delivered a full speech in SpaceX Star City, Texas, USA, summarizing the progress of starship launch, and looking forward to the technical path of human crossing the planet and establishing a Mars sub-base.He concluded on X: "Human civilization needs to maintain its current technical level until Mars becomes self-sufficient, which may be achieved within 20 years. If we can cross the planets and then the stars, our civilization will last for millions of years. If not, it may only last for hundreds of years. "Yun-Ta Tsai, a senior engineer of Tesla's AI team, commented: "It is rare to see a CEO talking about his dreams that he may not be able to see with his own eyes without talking about profits and income at the company meeting. He is sincere. May this candle never go out.”
Musk's latest SpaceX speech: Starship progress and Mars program
00:12 Let life cross the planet.
06:39 Starship's Three Flights Review
09:09 Starship progress, looking forward to flying four times
12:25 What is the significance of starship?
14:25 Why Mars?
16:52 Falcon 9, Dragon Ship, Star Chain
20:14 at Evolution route of starship
26:37 On-orbit refueling
28:41 Evolution of Raptor Engine
34:27 Thousand Ships Qi Fei
37:30 Planning for Colonizing Mars
Full text of speech
Let life cross the planet.What I want to introduce tonight is the general path for life to cross the planet.At SpaceX, we have done many good things. The magical star chain provides connections for the whole world and also provides financial support for many things we do here; Falcon 9 is the most important launch vehicle in the world, and the number of launches far exceeds all rockets except SoaceX; Starship is the first rocket design that really makes it possible for life to cross the planet. Before that, no rocket could extend life to another planet.
Now, I want to say something profound, which may sound a bit unusual. I am often asked, where are the aliens? This is Fermi's paradox: Where are the aliens?I don't see any evidence that there are aliens on earth. Many people think that there are aliens on the earth. I said, great, I want to meet them. Once, when I got my green card, it said: alien Registration Card. I said, okay.Where are the aliens? This is a fundamental question, because I don't know any evidence of the existence of aliens. This means that we may be unique.Look at the history of the earth. How many years has the earth existed?Assuming that physics is correct, the universe is about 13.8 billion years old and the earth is about 4.5 billion years old. Think about the age of civilization. In my opinion, the correct measure of civilization, or a good measure, should be the appearance of words.It is generally believed that the earliest writing is the ancient Sumerian writing. Where are they now? They are extinct.About 5500 years ago, there were only ancient early cuneiform characters. In fact, I think reading the history of words will make people unable to extricate themselves. Considering civilization, the existence of civilization needs words. The history of writing is only more than 5000 years.In the history of 4.5 billion years of the earth and 13.8 billion years of the universe, all human civilizations are just a moment, a fraction of time, and nothing at all. This may mean that consciousness is extremely rare, perhaps fleeting, and it may not last long. Otherwise, we would have seen some signs of aliens.I think the most likely explanation is that consciousness is so rare.
So, can consciousness really extend to another planet? Can consciousness extend to another star system?If we can finally become a space civilization, a trans-planetary species, and finally a trans-stellar species, and explore all these star systems, I think we may find many single-planetary civilizations that have long since died out.You may have heard me say before that we don't want to be those crappy single-planet civilizations. We want to be a trans-planetary civilization and eventually a trans-stellar civilization, roaming among the stars, making science fiction no longer a fantasy, and making Star Trek a reality.This is why I think it is highly urgent to let life cross the planet.For the first time in the 4.5 billion-year history of the earth, it is possible to extend life or consciousness beyond the earth. And we must do this while civilization is still strong. This is the company's primary goal: to extend life to another planet in a sustainable way-Mars is our only choice, and it is best to finish it before World War III or other disasters.Crucially, there needs to be enough people and enough goods on Mars, so that even if the earth encounters something, Mars can survive and continue to maintain its consciousness.Obviously, I'm not talking about abandoning the earth or anything like that. We want the earth to be as safe as possible for as long as possible, but some things may be beyond our control. Therefore, we want to make Mars a self-sufficient civilization as soon as possible. And I think this can be done in about 20 years.The huge starship factory that we are building is obviously the key. Moreover, the launch site we built here, at Kajiao and other places in the future is also the key.
Review of three flights of two-star shipLet's review (Starship Three Flying).Musk's latest SpaceX speech: Starship progress and Mars programCongratulations, you did it!It's crazy. It looks like a computer animation. It's hard to believe that it's a video without a filter. That's the real picture seen by the camera, no filter, nothing. This is the real picture seen by the camera, which is crazy!The amazing work you are engaged in, I think, almost no one thought it would really happen.This is a strange place ... we are basically in a sand mouth on the Rio Grande, near the beach. And this is the gateway to Mars. If this were a movie, you would say, impossible. It's incredible, but it's true.Thanks to you, congratulations!Progress of three-star ship, looking forward to four flightsThis is a side-by-side photo of three launches. As you can see, the thrust-to-weight ratio has been significantly improved. From the first launch to the second and then to the third launch, we have made great progress.
In another month or so, we will launch for the fourth time. For the fourth launch, if fate favors us, we can go through the high heat of the atmosphere and splash into the sea at a controllable place. Then, we hope that the booster can land on a virtual tower.If the booster successfully landed at the virtual tower, we will try to make the booster fly back and fall back to the launch tower in the fifth launch.This is largely a success-oriented plan, but it is possible to achieve it. I think the chances that we can catch the booster with a giant robotic arm this year ... I don't want to take too much risks, I hope we are lucky, but I think the chances that we can catch the booster with a launch tower this year are about 80% and 90%.This is crazy. In fact, when we first talked about this scheme, it sounded too crazy. We will have a huge ... bigger than the mechanical Godzilla in the movie, which can catch the biggest flying object in history from a distance with a mechanical arm.That's what we intend to do. Maybe you won't succeed the first time, but you will succeed in the end.Indeed, the starship is the key to let life cross the planet and preserve the light of consciousness, which is its significance. It may eventually become the most important thing we do.
In my opinion, the light of consciousness is like a small candle in the vast darkness, and this small candle has only been lit for a short time, and it will easily go out. We obviously want to preserve the faint candlelight of consciousness on earth and extend it to Mars and eventually to other parts of the solar system. Then, start to enter other star systems.I may not see all this unless I am frozen.In the future, we will find many civilizations, which may last for one million years, or two million years or ten million years. But a civilization that lasts for one million years has lasted much longer than ours, and that is only the third place after the decimal point of 13.8 billion years.If a civilization lasts for a million years, it is only ... the third digit after the decimal point rises by one place, that is, one million years. I want to say, we should think about how to make civilization last for one million years.We are often troubled by the tedious daily affairs, but we want to be a civilization that can last for one million years, even if it is not a hundred million years or a billion years. Then, becoming a multi-planet species is absolutely crucial to this goal.Why did you choose Mars?People often ask, why choose Mars?Frankly speaking, there are not many choices. Venus is an ultra-high temperature and high pressure acid bath.
If there is a third world war and a global thermonuclear war, they may throw a few nuclear bombs at the moon, but it is much more difficult to hit Mars with nuclear bombs ... Mars will see it coming and may have some time to stop missiles from flying in.Therefore, the distance and time required to reach Mars actually have an isolating effect on the continuation of consciousness, even if something terrible happens on the earth.Then, once we cross Mars, there are asteroids like Ceres, some moons of Jupiter. Starships can eventually reach anywhere in the solar system. Then, we need a whole new set of technology to fly to other star systems. But if we can't even reach Mars, then other star systems are hopeless.It's a planet that needs mending, and we need to do some work, but it's our only choice to cross the planet.
In the long run, we can make Mars warm, we can increase the atmospheric density of Mars, and there will be liquid oceans on about 40% of the surface of Mars. In this way, in the long run, we can make Mars a planet similar to Earth.Five Falcons 9, Dragon Ship, Star ChainWe have learned a lot since the company was founded. At first, we couldn't even put a small rocket into orbit, but now, we have successfully launched 327 times and recovered nearly 300 times. In fact, in a few weeks, we will be able to complete the 300th recovery landing.261 re-launches
Many times, people have told me that it is impossible to reuse rockets, and even if it is done, it is meaningless, because no one will want to launch so many rockets. But now, it has become a routine for us to launch rockets, recycle boosters and recycle fairings.We learned a lot from Falcon project and applied it to starship project. Obviously, Falcon and Star Chain projects are the lifeblood of the company's development. To this end, I want to thank the Falcon team for their incredible work.Then the dragon ship. Wow, 45 dragon launches, that's incredible! We have put 50 crew members into orbit and 46 into the space station. The most important thing is that every passenger has returned safely.The work of the dragon ship team is incredible. Let's clap for them, there is no better result.
In fact, looking at the route map of all satellites flying around the earth does look a bit scary. At present, there are more than 6,000 satellites in operation, 10,000 laser links and nearly 3 million users.
Star chain is making a good contribution to those people on the earth who have no internet access or whose internet access is expensive. It has made a lot of good contributions to the earth. When I say that we want to be a trans-planetary species, we obviously want the earth to be as safe as possible. Mars has become great, and the star chain has done a lot of work in this regard.We have learned a lot by owning this huge satellite team. Star chains will also become very important for high-bandwidth communication connected to Mars and Mars.Evolution route of six-star shipFrom a small rocket to a much larger Falcon 9, after many iterations of Falcon 9, then Falcon Heavy and then Starship. Obviously, the starship will get bigger.
This year, if everything goes according to plan, SpaceX will send 90% of the global payload into Earth orbit, and then China will complete 6% and the rest of the world will complete 4%, which is quite crazy. Once the starship begins to fly, we will be responsible for 99% of the global load sent to Earth orbit. In order to build a city on Mars, we have to do this.I should say, we will also build a lunar base, and we can build a lunar base by the way.As you can see, Falcon 1 has an in-orbit load capacity of about half a ton. There is a small mistake on the slide. The payload capacity of Falcon 1 is about half a ton. Falcon 9, in consumption mode (no recycling), can reach a load of about 25 tons. Yes, the Falcon weighs about 70 tons.
In a word, these figures are growing rapidly. The final configuration of the starship may be able to put more than 200 tons of mass into orbit under the condition of complete reuse, and it can be launched many times a day. Musk's latest SpaceX speech: Starship progress and Mars programI am confident that we will achieve this goal this year. As I said, there is an 80-90% chance this year. Then there is the recycling and reuse of the starship's superior spacecraft, which takes longer. Before flying back to the launch site, we hope to land or splash the spacecraft at designated places at sea at least twice in a row, because we don't want to scatter debris over Mexico or the United States.I guess, maybe we can reuse the starship next year. In my opinion, this year, it is very likely that we can let the spacecraft part of the starship fall to a controlled position at sea and let it land on a virtual tower somewhere in the Pacific Ocean or Indian Ocean.We have proved that we can complete the final stage of landing, from belly-down posture to spinning the spacecraft and landing vertically. We have proved this. We just need to be sure that we can reliably withstand the high heat when re-entering the atmosphere, and then we will let the spacecraft fly back and land on the tower.We need to build more giant robotic arms. There will be two towers here, and then there will be two towers at Kajiao. Sometime next year, the starship will have four launch towers. Our goal is to put the first launch tower and launch system in Kajiao into use around the middle of next year, which is very important for the launch azimuth over land.
What can be expected is that we will launch research and development here, test new technologies and produce rockets here, and then, we may arrange most of the operational launches in Kajiao.This year, we plan to build about six more boosters and spacecraft. And next year's productivity will be greatly improved, which is why we built this giant factory.
In the end, we need to build many more spacecraft than boosters, especially for Mars. Because you will want to disassemble the spaceship and use it as raw material on Mars. Because the materials of the spacecraft will be very precious, we want most spacecraft not to fly back to Earth, but to use them as raw materials.Eventually, we will want to fly the spacecraft back to Earth, and I think we also want to give people the choice of going home. Because if there is a choice to go home, people may be more willing to fly there. But I think that most people who fly to Mars may never return to Earth.We need to raise the output to a fairly high level. I think in the end, it may be several ships every day.Seven in-orbit refueling, lunar baseNext year, our goal is to demonstrate the propellant transmission between spacecraft. It's difficult to make this shot look less naughty, because this is two spaceships holding together and exchanging liquids, that's all.
But this is actually an important step to Mars. You need to put the spacecraft into orbit and then make on-orbit refueling, which is a bit like refueling in the air. Every time you mission to mars, you need to make five or six on-orbit raises, so it's roughly five to one.This is also very important for NASA's Al themis program to return to the moon. We hope to have a spaceship dedicated to the moon, just like this.
Obviously, there are no giant robotic arms on the moon, so we need landing legs. And we don't need a heat shield or flaps, because there is no atmosphere there. Therefore, the moon version of the spacecraft will be customized.Finally, I think we should build a lunar base, the lunar base Alpha. It will be very exciting to build a permanent base on the moon. We will have a group of special spacecraft to and from the moon, but they will not return to the earth to land. They will just dock with the propellant bunker ship and refuel in orbit.
Eight Evolution of Raptor Engines . As far as performance is concerned, the starship has made great progress in all aspects. We can see how the Raptor engine magically developed from 185 tons of thrust to 280 tons. I think, in the end, we may make the thrust of the booster engine exceed 330 tons. This means that the total thrust during liftoff will reach 10,000 tons.
Moreover, Raptor III does not need a heat shield. Raptor 3 looks very simple, and it has been simplified in many ways. A lot of complexity is hidden, and many parts of the engine are integrated with cooling channels that Raptor II does not have. In order not to use the heat shield, it must be very strong.Raptor 3 is actually like this. Raptor 3 seems to lack many components, but in fact, these components have either been deleted or integrated into the system, as I said, integrated with cooling channels. Where the secondary pipeline is needed, the secondary pipeline is also integrated into the outer layer of the pump body and combustion chamber, so it is much simpler.In fact, it will be very difficult to produce the third generation of Raptor, but it is easy to integrate, and we will have higher performance, lower total weight and more reliability.Musk's latest SpaceX speech: Starship progress and Mars programWell, it can spray like this for a while.Look at how long the Flametail of the starship is. Its Flametail is very long. Because of the pressure in the combustion chamber, it spews more gas at a higher speed. I think Flametail may be 1000 feet long, more than twice the height of a rocket. With the increase of thrust, the Flametail will become longer.Yes, the height of the rocket will inevitably increase.At present, the third starship launch can put 40 or 50 tons of weight into orbit. According to the current design, the second generation of starship will exceed 100 tons, while the third generation of starship will exceed 200 tons. Yes, the thrust will increase from about 7000 tons to over 8000 tons. I think the final thrust will exceed 10000 tons, about 7000 or 8000 tons of lift-off mass. And it will increase the height by at least 10 meters. Let's wait and see.
Yes, its height growth may be a little more than this. We're not going to adopt the height-diameter ratio of Falcon 9. That's crazy. Falcon 9 is a very long rocket. I guess it may be longer than this.It can transport 200 tons per launch, which is completely reusable. This is incredible. Yes, it will be about 500 feet high and there will be thousands of design improvements.I think perhaps the most important point is that the single launch cost of Starship III will be lower than that of Falcon 1. This is the difference between a fully reusable rocket and an expendable rocket. Using low-cost propellant and self-pressurization technology, the cost of a fully reusable rocket is actually lower than that of a small expendable rocket.As I said, the payload capacity of Falcon 1 is half a ton, and the payload of Starship 3 will be 400 times that of Falcon 1. In the end, I think we may reduce the cost of each flight to Earth orbit to about $2 million or $3 million.These are unimaginable numbers, and no one ever thought it was possible. But in order to achieve this goal, we have not broken any laws of physics. In other words, we can do this without breaking the laws of physics.Nine thousand ships Qi FeiMission to mars is two years or 26 months apart. If you look closely at the star chain router, you will see the Hohmann transfer orbit map from Earth to Mars. This is basically telling people that the star chain system you bought is helping people reach Mars. I think it's cool.Musk's latest SpaceX speech: Starship progress and Mars programAbout every two years, thousands of spacecraft will set off from the earth for Mars. It looks like battlestar galactica, but in a good way. I hope it won't be hunted by the Cylons.Every 26 months, thousands of spacecraft set off for Mars, which will be a magical thing.This picture basically says that in order to reach Mars, we need to build a propellant bunker ship. The propellant silo ship looks more like a hot dog than a spear. It is actually a long spaceship with a lot of heat insulation materials. And we will fill it with propellant.
On the journey to Mars, the spacecraft will take off from the earth with hundreds of tons of payload, enter the orbit with almost no propellant left, and then be refueled by the warehouse ship. Then go to Mars and fly all the way to Mars with more than 200 tons of payload.On Mars, at first, we will directly recycle the spacecraft materials, so most spacecraft will not return to Earth. As time goes on, we will hope that the spacecraft will fly back to Earth, so that we can reuse them.Ten colonial marsIn order to do this, we need to make methane CH4 and oxygen O2 on Mars, which can be achieved by using water H2O and carbon dioxide CO2. The atmosphere of Mars is carbon dioxide CO2, and Mars has a lot of water ice H2O. It's like a tailor-made design.Well, we use methane-oxygen system because it is quite easy to make methane and oxygen on Mars. Although it is not easy, the raw materials for making methane and oxygen on Mars are ready-made. So we can build a propellant warehouse and fly the spacecraft back to Earth.Then, build a self-sufficient civilization on Mars as soon as possible.We hope to reduce the cost of going to Mars to a level that almost everyone can afford. If someone works hard and saves money on earth, they can go to Mars. Anyone, ideally almost anyone, can go to Mars. I think you will see that many governments will also provide financial assistance to people.Mars has an optimal landing zone with resources. You can get water or frozen water there, and you won't be too close to the polar regions, so you can use solar energy. It's good to use nuclear energy, but I don't know if I can get approval. Nuclear energy will be very convenient on Mars, because we can use heat energy and generate electricity at the same time.Then, you will want to stay two kilometers below the Shanghai level of Mars. If there really was an ocean on Mars, then you were deep in the ocean, at least at first.We want to land between the polar regions and the equator, in the deep depression of Mars. The deeper the terrain, the more you can use the atmosphere to brake, and the higher the density of the atmosphere.
These are all things that must be developed. Sometimes people ask me, are we already developing these things? I said, no, because this is a carriage, but we need horses first. Rockets are horses, and then these are carriages.But in the end, we need all these things, a lot of power generation, all kinds of mining, ice mining, propellant production, long-term life support system, a lot of construction, and then, global communication. This will bring many opportunities for entrepreneurs who want to create on Mars, whether it is propellant or other.
I think we must build a propellant warehouse, whether it is iron ore refining, pizza shops or bars, and we will have the opportunity to do what we like to do on Mars.Mars bar is very good! (Laughter)I think, roughly speaking, a self-sufficient city needs about 1 million people and millions of tons of goods.
We can do it. We can do it in 20 years. But as I said, in order to achieve self-sufficiency, we actually need the whole industrial base, and we can't lack any elements. It does take some time to ask ourselves, do we have everything we need to survive on Mars?By doing this, the future of consciousness will be guaranteed.Production capacity of eleven star shipsIf 200 tons are launched 10 times a day, 1.5 million tons can be transported to LEO in each window period. Converted, 250,000 tons can be sent to Mars in each window period. In other words, we can achieve the goal of 1 million tons in about eight years, because each window period is separated by two years.
I think this is feasible, and we are indeed prepared to do so. We're really going to do this. It's crazy to think about it. It's wild to transport millions of tons of materials to Mars.Moreover, we have to produce a large number of vehicles, and we need thousands of vehicles every year. In fact, this is quite feasible. It sounds like a lot, but it is quite feasible.If you compare this figure with automobile production, it's just a drop in the bucket. Of course, this guy is much bigger than a car, but even in terms of gross tonnage, it is quite feasible to produce thousands of vehicles every year. This is what we need to do, and we intend to do so.
In the long run, we may have some offshore launch sites.
As you can imagine, all these starships are in orbit, waiting for the two planets to approach. Then, the huge planetary fleet took off towards Mars.Ok, we really intend to do this. Think about the origin of this place. The place where we are standing now used to be a sandbar. Then look at what we have done. We have launched three starships, and the fourth one is coming soon. We are building a huge factory that can produce a large number of spaceships.This is surreal, but it is reality.We're really going to do this. We're going to take humans to Mars. I believe that you can do it.
Musk's latest SpaceX speech: Starship progress and Mars program